Indiana Sen. Dan Coats’ announcement on Tuesday that he will not seek another term has heartened Democrats who now see a slight chance to pick off a red-state Senate seat in 2016.
At the top of Democrats’ wish list is former Sen. Evan Bayh, whose $10 million war chest has kept him firmly on the party’s radar. But a Bayh adviser threw cold water on the possibility late Tuesday.
“He received several calls urging him to run for the United States Senate. He is not a candidate for United States Senate in 2016,” said Dan Parker, Bayh’s former state director and former chair of the Indiana Democratic Party.
Asked whether that meant Bayh would not be a candidate at any point in the cycle, Parker repeated his assertion that Bayh “is not a candidate.”
“Evan wanted to thank Sen. Coats for his service,” Parker added. “He’s always been a good and decent man, and he served the people of Indiana admirably.”
Bayh told POLITICO Campaign Pro last week, before Coats’ announcement, that he’s not interested in returning to the Senate, although he stopped short of a Shermanesque refusal to run.
“I’m not running for any office, and I have no interest at this point in running for any office,” he said in a phone interview.
Despite Democrats’ optimism, the seat still leans toward a Republican hold in 2016. A number of Republicans are expected to consider the race, including Coats’ chief of staff.
But one reason Democrats are so intrigued by a potential Bayh comeback bid is that he’d begin the race with nearly enough money to run a statewide campaign from the get-go. Bayh’s $10 million campaign account left over from his Senate days is nearly twice what then-Rep. Joe Donnelly spent in the entire 2012 cycle to win the Hoosier State’s other Senate seat.
Asked about his stocked campaign coffers, Bayh said last week, “That’s a very reasonable thing for people to look at. The takeaway from that is not that I have something specific in mind, but simply because the future is uncertain. It’s keeping my options open. Even if the likelihood of me running for something is pretty unlikely, it’s just keeping that option open.”
After Bayh, Democrats are eyeing former Rep. Baron Hill, who indicated Tuesday he’s thinking about a bid.
“I am interested in it,” he said, adding that he still needs to have “conversations” with allies before he makes a decision.
Hill has been openly mulling a run for governor; Democrats are waiting to see whether Gov. Mike Pence seeks a second term or optsto run for president, which seems increasingly unlikely.
Indiana is a Republican-leaning state with an occasionally Democratic streak. The state went for Barack Obama in 2008 but shifted hard to the right in 2012, when Mitt Romney won by a wide margin. But even that year, the state also elected Donnelly, a moderate Democrat. Today, seven of its nine congressional seats belong to Republicans, many of whom were quickly considered potential contenders for the Senate seat.
They include Rep. Marlin Stutzman, a conservative who isn’t a favorite of the GOP establishment.
“We will be taking a serious look at running again,” said Stutzman, who finished second to Coats in the 2010 Senate primary before being tapped by GOP leaders to replace disgraced former Rep. Mark Souder, who resigned following a sex scandal. “A lot of our 2010 supporters are reaching out already.”
Other lawmakers Republicans mentioned as possible contenders include Reps. Todd Rokita, Jackie Walorski, and Todd Young.
But a handful of other Republicans are eyeing a bid as well. State House Speaker Brian Bosma is on some GOP short lists. Eric Holcomb, Coats’ chief of staff and a former chairman of the state party, has taken a leave of absence as he mulls running. An ally — former Indiana GOP Communications Director Pete Seat — said Holcomb has seen “an immediate outpouring of support from every corner of Indiana.”
Donnelly’s 2012 win will be fresh in the mind of Republicans in Washington, who know holding onto the seat is vital in maintaining control of the Senate in 2016. Donnelly’s 2012 win was fueled in large part by Richard Mourdock’s upset win over then-Sen. Richard Lugar in the GOP primary; after a closely fought race, Mourdock made comments about rape, pregnancy and religion that led to his downfall.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), who chaired the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2012, said Tuesday that the NRSC is unlikely to unite behind one candidate before Indiana GOP voters have their say in a primary.
“That’s the difference between the Republican Party and the Democratic Party,” Cornyn told reporters on Capitol Hill. “The Democratic Party comes in and clears the field. Republican politics don’t work that way. It’s all grass roots up. But we need to make sure we have a good candidate. We need to hold the seat.”
The current leaders of the Senate political committees greeted the news of Coats’ retirement cautiously.
“We have a very deep bench in Indiana,” said Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “And we’re going to miss Dan Coats after 2016, but we’re well positioned to hold that seat, and I think Sen. Coats is interested in being part of that effort.”
Wicker’s Democratic counterpart, Montana Sen. Jon Tester, nodded to the fact that the seat may now be more competitive without an incumbent on the ballot. “It’s not a bad thing from my perspective,” he said.
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