Tuesday, 2 June 2015

Democratic Primary Voters Ready To Nominate Hillary Today

A brand new Zogby Analytics Poll released as a special to Forbes.com readers shows that a solid majority of likely Democratic primary voters are ready to hand their 2016 presidential nomination to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In the poll of 494 likely Democratic primary/caucus voters nationwide, conducted online by Zogby on May 30-31, 63% said that Mrs. Clinton “deserves the Democratic nomination”, while only 26% said they would “prefer someone else”. Another 11% said they were not sure.

In the horse race question, Mrs. Clinton holds a commanding lead over Vice President Joe Biden 54% to 14%, with Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders collecting 9%, newly announced former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley 4%, former Virginia Senator Jim Webb 2%, and former Rhode Island Governor and Senator Lincoln Chafee 1%. (The entire sample was completed after Mr. O’Malley’s announcement Saturday.

Mrs. Clinton leads Vice President Biden and Senator Sanders 48%-17%-13% among men but 59%-12%-6% among women. Among 18-29 year olds the race is a bit tighter with Mrs. Clinton leading the VP 45% to 22%, with 12% for Mr. Sanders and 6% for Mr. O’Malley – but she soars to higher margins among 30-49 year olds 55%-13%-10%-6%, 50-64 year olds 62%-12%-6%-1%, and voters over 65 (49%-11%-8%-1%). She also holds a commanding lead among African Americans 73% to Mr. Biden’s 16%, but a bit less so among Hispanics 46% to Mr. Biden’s 28%, Mr. O’Malley’s 11%, and Mr. Sanders 7%.

The first primary is not for another seven months and there is plenty of campaigning to go. However, when we matched Mrs. Clinton against individual candidates one on one, she still fared very well. Head to head against Sen. Sanders she leads 62% to 20%; against Secretary of State and former Democratic nominee John Kerry she is ahead 61%-19%; and she triumphs 66%-15% against Mr. O’Malley. (We did not match Mrs. Clinton against the Vice President).

Mrs. Clinton is pumped up especially by her support among both women and self-identified Democrats.

At least for now, the race is Mrs. Clinton’s to lose. She will need to be concerned about younger voters and Hispanics on her side and out to vote – especially in order to win in November. But no one has even dented her armor yet.

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