A young man took a selfie with Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, at the Conservative Political Action Conference on Feb. 27.Credit Jabin Botsford/The New York Times
Despite a hipster Republican millennial ad campaign, the popularity of theConservative Political Action Conference and the prevalence of Taylor Swift-animated gif press releases from prominent Republicans, young voters still predominantly back Democrats when it comes to presidential elections, according to a new poll by Harvard University. But their edge is starting to shrink.
Indeed, 55 percent of those polled, which included likely voters from ages 18 to 29, preferred a Democrat to maintain control of the White House in 2016, compared to 40 percent who wanted a Republican. But that is a far cry from the 67 percent of millennials who voted for President Obama in 2012. The I.O.P. nationwide poll was conducted online by GfK March 18 to April 1 with a random sample of 3,034 adults aged 18 to 29. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
“The margin at the moment looks much more like the 2004 race than the Obama campaigns,” said John Della Volpe, the director of polling at the Institute of Politics at Harvard. “If Republicans can hold the Democrat nominee to less than 60 percent of the young vote nationally, their chances are dramatically improved for a Republican electoral college win, in my opinion.”
Perhaps most encouraging for Republicans is that the younger half of the millennial generation, those from 18 to 24, offers an opportunity to make inroads.
But when it comes to picking a favorite candidate, the young Republicans embody the millennial stereotype of anxious indecisiveness: many simply cannot choose. Thirty-six percent said they “don’t know” who would be their top choice, and no candidate or potential candidate was able to get more than 10 percent of the millennials surveyed to name them as their top choice.
Hillary Rodham Clinton is a favorite among young Democrats, with 47 percent calling her their top choice, although 28 percent also remain undecided.
Turning these voters out will be a crucial to Mrs. Clinton as she seeks to build upon the coalition that propelled Mr. Obama to two victories. A study after the 2012 electionby Tufts University found that the youth vote helped drive Mr. Obama to victory particularly in four critical swing states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Had Mr. Romney split the youth vote in those states, he could have won each of them.
The Harvard poll also asked questions regarding various issues in the news, and found sentiments that cut across party lines. Seventy-five percent of millennials surveyed believe that global warming is a fact, and 55 percent believe it is caused by “emissions from cars and industrial facilities such as power plants and factories.”
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