First Read: A Democratic Wave Isn’t Coming — at Least Not Yet

A Democratic wave isn’t coming — at least not yet

Four months to go until Election Day 2016, and Hillary Clinton holds the early advantage in the presidential race. Our national NBC/WSJ poll shows her ahead of Donald trump by five points; the Washington Post/ABC poll has up 12; and this morning’s NBC|SurveyMonkey online tracking poll shows her leading by eight, Clinton’s largest advantage in that survey. So that’s the good news for Democrats. The bad news? It doesn’t look like that advantage is translating into the building of a significant wave — at least not yet, according to our NBC/WSJ poll. On a generic presidential ballot, 45% of voters prefer a Democrat to win the White House, versus 42% who want a Republican. (At this same time in 2008, by comparison, Democrats held a 16-point edge on this question, 51%-35%.) What’s more, voters are split, 46%-46% over which party they’d prefer to control Congress. (It was 52% Democrat, 33% Republican in June 2008, though 45%-44% in June 2012.) So best-case scenario for Democrats, per our poll, is that 2016 is shaping up to look more like 2012 (when Democrats won a handful of House and Senate seats) than 2008 (when they routed Republicans up and down the ballot). And consider these final numbers from the NBC/WSJ poll: By a 40%-16% margin, voters say they’d be less inclined to back a Republican who endorses Trump. And the margin isn’t that different for a Democrat who endorses Clinton — 32% less inclined, 15% more inclined. For the full article click here 

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