the Democratic Party announced it would hold six candidates debates during primary season. So front-runner Hillary Clinton will at least have to face some opposition on her way to a nomination that currently she seems all-but-certain to win.
This is actually seen as a positive by some of her supporters, who believe the debates could help battle-test Mrs. Clinton as she readies for an eventual general-election campaign against a Republican opponent.
But how much battle-testing? And what kind? Those questions are less clear. Mrs. Clinton is so far ahead of the Democratic pack right now that it’s not clear what threshold should be set for other contenders to be eligible for a debate.
When it comes to primary debates, each event is subject to different rules and decisions on whom is included – and can sometimes lead to disputes. For instance, in 2008, Democratic presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich was excluded from a Nevada debate hosted by MSNBC. He sued and lost in court.
Going by the Real Clear Politics polling averages, the only Clinton challenger even scoring in double digits is Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at just under 13% – and she’s said she’s not running. Next is Vice President Joe Biden, who clocks in at just under 10% – and who also appears unlikely to run.
By comparison, Mrs. Clinton is at about 62%.
Put another way: If this were the general election, not a single one of her projected opponents would meet the Commission on Presidential Debates’ 15% poll support threshold to compete in a general election debate.
Of course, the 15% number is just a point for comparison. There is no set rule for what a candidate has to be polling to appear in the each party’s primary debates, and theRepublicans are grappling with a likely field of more than a dozen candidates. But the numbers above are still telling — there is Mrs. Clinton, and then a sharp dropoff.
Using these numbers, the only other announced candidate for the Democratic nomination, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, is at 5.6%. The others, who have expressed interest but yet to announce their intentions, are barely registering. Former Maryland Gov.Martin O’Malley is at 1.6%. Former Virginia Sen. Jim Webb is at 1.4%. Former Rhode Island Gov. Lincoln Chafee is at 0.3%.
It’s still very early, but what these numbers say is that if this were a general-election campaign all the other Democratic names would be essentially considered fringe candidates.
And that could have a couple of meanings for Mrs. Clinton. As it is with any odds-on front-runner, the goal of the nominating process for her is to get pushed to improve without losing the larger game.
On the plus side, if these numbers don’t move appreciably, the debates likely wouldn’t be a threat to Mrs. Clinton’s eventual nomination. The question is whether the size of her lead is so enormous that is diminishes the debates as a tool to become a better candidate.
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