Tuesday, 5 May 2015

RIVERSIDE COUNTY: Democrats gain ground on GOP in voter registration

Republicans still hold the upper hand in Riverside County politics. But new pockets of blue are emerging on what has been a solid red map.

That’s the picture emerging from voter registration data compiled by the California Secretary of State. In the past four years, Democrats overtook Republicans to achieve a plurality of voters in Riverside, San Jacinto and Cathedral City, state numbers show.

Given Democrats’ dominance in California since World War II, “it is not surprising that we find areas within the state that were once Republican bastions slowly turning more Democratic,” said Brian Janiskee, a professor who heads the political science department at Cal State San Bernardino.

Statewide, however, the growth of independent voters contrasts with contraction among Democrats and the GOP. The number of unaffiliated voters in California grew 2.7 percent in the past two years while the percentage of registered Democrats and Republicans fell 0.7 and 0.9 percent, respectively, according to state figures released in late March.

California has 7.6 million registered Democrats compared with 4.9 million Republicans and 4.1 million independent voters. Democrats control all statewide offices, the state Legislature and 39 of California’s 53 congressional seats, and no GOP presidential candidate has won the Golden State since George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Riverside County has roughly 346,000 Republican and just under 313,000 Democratic voters. But as the county population swelled, the number of registered Democrats has grown 33 percent since 1999 compared with 26 percent for the GOP.

The county’s independent voter numbers almost tripled in that time frame, a trend experts chalk up to frustration with both major parties. A 2014 Public Policy Institute of California poll found that California independents are ideologically diverse but tend to vote for Democrats.

Democrats are on a roll in the county. In 2012, the party won competitive Assembly, state Senate and congressional races in the greater Riverside area. Also that year, Democrat Raul Ruiz, a first-time candidate, upset longtime GOP incumbent Rep. Mary Bono in a congressional district covering the Coachella Valley, Hemet, San Jacinto and the Pass.

LATINO FACTOR?

Republican voters outnumber Democrats in 18 of the county’s 28 cities, including Jurupa Valley, Wildomar and Menifee, all of which incorporated in the past decade. But Democrats are the plurality of voters in the county’s two largest cities, Riverside and Moreno Valley.

Democrats now account for 38 percent of the city of Riverside’s registered voters, with Republicans making up 36 percent and decline-to-state voters making up 21 percent. In 2007, Republicans held a 41-to-38 percent edge.


gaining ground 2


In San Jacinto, Democrats hold the upper hand by fewer than 140 voters. San Jacinto’s Republicans outnumbered Democrats by almost 1,200 voters in 2011.

Former Riverside mayor Ron Loveridge, a Democrat and UC Riverside political science professor, believes the growth in Riverside’s Latino population helps explain the shift. Latinos tend to vote Democratic, and they were credited with helping Ruiz win in 2012.

The percentage of Latinos as part of the overall population grew at least 8 percent from 2000 to 2010 in Riverside, San Jacinto and Cathedral City, census figures show.

 

 

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