Saturday, 21 May 2016

Are Democrats frittering away a shot at the Senate majority?

Democrats have been congratulating themselves on their good fortune in the Senate races. Donald Trump will sink the Republicans! Look at our fine recruits! There are problems on both fronts.

First, so far Trump is running more competitively in states with critical Senate races. For example, he is statistically tied with Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, where Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) is running against Gov. Maggie Hassan (D). Moreover, as Trump becomes more erratic and less associated with standard Republican messaging, it becomes harder to make the case that Ayotte or, say, Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio) is a Trump-clone or will go along with Trump’s agenda.

Indeed, in the three races most likely to determine control of the Senate — Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire — Clinton leads Trump by single digits in the RealClearPolitics poll averages and the Senate races are statistically tied. For the full article click here 



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